كُتب في 10 يونيو 2025 قبل ضرب إيران
The future of Syria in the post-Assad era is emerging as a central pillar in the reconfiguration of the Middle East’s regional order. Syria has become a testing ground for competing ambitions among regional powers, a laboratory for evolving U.S. strategy, and a site of strategic contestation with China and Russia.
Under a transitional authority led by Ahmad al-Sharaa, Syria is no longer a passive arena but an active player shaping the new order. It stands at the intersection of economic ambitions, security anxieties, and diplomatic recalibrations, leading to new alliances, evolving interactions, and a redefinition of regional influence.
The Post-Assad Landscape: A Shift in Regional Power Play
The fall of the Assad regime in December 2024 marked a turning point. It opened the door for Gulf states—Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar—as well as Turkey, to redefine Syria’s reconstruction and its role in the region. While these actors share broad goals such as curbing Iranian influence and managing the refugee crisis, their approaches, ideologies, and pace of engagement vary significantly, transforming Syria into a theater for intra-Gulf and regional rivalries.
Saudi Arabia views Syria as a launchpad for constructing a new regional order. It seeks to position itself as a stabilizing force while countering the influence of rivals like Turkey and Qatar, and containing Iran.
The UAE approaches Syria cautiously, driven by its ideological opposition to political Islam. Unlike Saudi Arabia, the UAE views Gaza—and its normalization with Israel—as the starting point for shaping the regional system.
Qatar has swiftly repositioned itself from a staunch opponent of the former regime to an early partner of the new authorities. Leveraging its ties with Turkey and international institutions, Qatar aims to shape Syria’s political and economic recovery, securing a long-term role in its reconstruction.
Turkey, deeply embedded in the Syrian crisis, is shifting from a crisis actor to a pragmatic problem-solver. Its approach is shaped by security concerns regarding Kurdish groups and economic interests in post-war reconstruction. The evolving Turkey-Kurd relationship in Syria mirrors broader regional dynamics.
A previously cautious Saudi-Turkish relationship has evolved into a tactical alliance, underpinned by mutual interests in containing Iran and stabilizing post-Assad Syria. Both have jointly pressured the U.S. to lift economic sanctions.
U.S. Engagement: From Sanctions to Strategic Recalibration
The Syrian case reflects a broader recalibration in U.S. foreign policy. President Trump’s unexpected decision to lift sanctions during his May 2025 Gulf visit marked a pivotal moment. The move bypassed conventional policy channels, signaling a shift toward aligning U.S. policy with Gulf priorities—stability, reintegration, and economic recovery in Syria.
Washington is now wielding economic diplomacy to influence outcomes, exemplified by a $7 billion energy deal involving Qatari, Turkish, and American companies. This strategy seeks to stabilize Syria, counter Iranian and Russian influence, and promote regional integration.
Yet, this shift has raised concerns in Israel. The U.S.‘s pragmatic engagement with Syria’s new leadership—including Trump’s meeting with al-Sharaa and calls for a non-aggression pact with Israel—has been viewed by some Israeli officials as sidelining their security strategy.
The Regional Contest: Between Pragmatism and Fragmentation
Post-Assad Syria has weakened Iran’s position, cutting off a critical corridor to Hezbollah. Regional powers are now working to limit Iranian influence through economic and political means. However, Iran is no longer seen as the absolute enemy; its containment is pursued pragmatically, not ideologically.
Israel, wary of the new Syrian leadership’s Islamist roots, has conducted multiple airstrikes to target perceived threats. While the U.S. remains committed to Israel’s strategic integration—through projects like the IMEC Corridor—it is also exploring diplomatic flexibility with traditional adversaries such as Iran and Hamas.
For Riyadh, normalization with Israel remains tied to tangible progress on Gaza and irreversible steps toward Palestinian statehood. Syria’s sovereignty and Israeli military actions there are now factored into the calculus of normalization.
Syria: Between Economic Stabilization and Democratic Aspirations
The urgent need for reconstruction after years of war has prioritized economic recovery as the path to stability. Gulf actors view investments and sanction relief as tools to stabilize post-conflict zones, including Gaza and Yemen. This economic-first logic drives re-engagement with Syria and reflects a broader regional pivot toward prosperity over politics.
The U.S., under Trump, has embraced this transactional approach, focusing on trade, investment, and short-term deals. Regional actors see lifting sanctions as a way to turn Syria from a liability into an opportunity for integration and development.
However, this focus has sidelined discussions around democracy and human rights. Regional efforts to shape the new order prioritize pragmatic goals—economic recovery, regional security, and containment of rival influences—over democratic reform or governance transparency.
Managing Sectarianism and Ethnic Divides
Regional powers adopt varied strategies in navigating sectarian and ethnic divisions. Turkey’s foremost concern is the Kurdish entity in northwest Syria, which it sees as linked to the PKK. U.S. support for the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) complicates this. Turkey’s earlier operations, like Afrin’s “Olive Branch,” suggest a demographic engineering approach aimed at displacing Kurds and resettling Sunni refugees—potentially foreshadowing similar policies elsewhere.
The rise of a Sunni-led government in Syria, after decades of Alawite dominance under Assad, is viewed by Ankara as a strategic gain, bolstering its influence in the Arab and Muslim worlds.
Israel, meanwhile, frames the new government as a radical Islamist regime and seeks to exploit Kurdish and Druze anxieties to fragment Syria further and counter Turkey. This reflects Israel’s longstanding strategy of managing internal divisions in neighboring states to maintain strategic advantage.
Qatar’s role centers on strategic engagement with the new leadership bloc, leveraging economic tools and ideological alignment rather than directly addressing Syria’s internal social cleavages.
The UAE, positioning itself as a bulwark against political Islam since 2011, supports technocratic governance in Syria and backs state institutions as alternatives to Islamist groups like HTS. Its involvement in reconstruction is tied to consolidating state authority rather than social reconciliation.
Competing Models of Regional Order
Each regional actor promotes a distinct model:
- Saudi Arabia emphasizes sovereignty, economic recovery, and national institutions.
- Turkey pursues strategic containment of Kurdish forces and expanded Sunni leadership.
- Qatar blends ideological support with strategic mediation and investment.
- The UAE champions secular, centralized governance and curbs Islamist influence.
- Israel prioritizes fragmentation and security dominance.
- The U.S., increasingly pragmatic, supports economic stability even at the expense of democratic values.
Despite their differences, these actors converge around a shared, if uneven, pragmatism that prioritizes results over rhetoric. In this evolving Middle East, Syria has moved from being a symbol of collapse to a site of reimagined power structures—where economic deals shape diplomacy, and ideological divides give way to transactional politics.
Whether this trajectory leads to a durable regional order or a new phase of contested instability remains to be seen. What is clear is that the new Middle East is taking shape—centered not just around conflict, but around the reconstruction and redefinition of Syria.